The following is a translation of an inaugural speech. Comments to follow.

“To what extent are we democratic? And what are the indications that refer to the existence or nonexistence of democracy? Is it in elections or in free press or in free speech or in other freedoms and rights? Democracy is not any of these because all these rights and others are not democracy, rather they are democratic practices … we cannot apply the democracy of others on ourselves. Western democracy, for example, is the outcome of a long history that resulted in customs and traditions which distinguish the current culture of Western societies … we have to have our democratic experience which is special to us, which stems from our history, culture, civilization and which is a response to the needs of our society and the requirements of our reality”

[NB: Please see my comment for an overdue follow-up to this post]

            It’s been several months now since Tony Blair was appointed/annointed as the International Middle East Peace Envoy and what a few months it’s been. Why just last week, the BBC reported that Blair was on TV (briefly) expressing the same optimism that President Bush earlier commented on when discussing the talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. If all it takes to be the Middle East Peace Envoy is to react to other people’s comments, why, they could have just asked me. I’m sure my retainer would have been lower.

            To be fair, I’m sure that Blair’s new job is more complicated than it would appear. It might actually even involve some work, but one wouldn’t know it. It boggles the mind that someone so high profile has received such a (potentially) high profile position and yet he continues to be overshadowed by every else who visits the region. Is it wrong to expect Blair to trump Bush when it comes to peace in the Middle East? Maybe. America is still the one everyone looks to to solve those problems despite our waning influence there. However, one would do well to ask, then, why even bother having a Middle East Peace Envoy? I can’t help but wonder if this position was just an excuse to give Blair something to do besides watching Richard and Judy now that his most important years are behind him. If there is a valid purpose behind his appointment, then someone needs to start throwing “Bush’s poodle” a bone.

            In response to the ongoing political stalemate in Lebanon, the Arab League came up with a deal to solve the crisis. I want to discuss the reaction of both Hezbollah and Syria to the deal.

            For its part, Hezbollah wants a deal that ensures it will have enough power to block any threatening legislation. I believe I’ve seen the number “33 percent plus one” batted around, which would make sense given that the passing of legislation requires a 67 percent approval in parliament. Now, lettuce return to the crucial part of that first sentence: “enough power to block…legislation”. Wouldn’t any political organization that subscribes to Realism? Granting such a request to Hezbollah, however, would undermine the already-twisted democratic principles of Lebanon. An increase in the mandated power of Hezbollah’s political wing would come at the expense of the other confessions; and while the lunacy of the confessional style of politics is certainly worthy of another post (or dissertation), it represents the only hope for a stable Lebanon. It cannot and should not be undermined for anyone.

            Another point to chew on is the idea that the Hezbollah spokesman has said that Hezbollah “cautiously welcomes” the deal but will not give the final OK until subsequent events play out. This puts the deal, which many would argue is the best hope for resolving the crisis, in a catch-22 that would only end by giving in to Nasrallah and his lot.

            Syria’s reaction to the deal is also worthy of scrutiny. It has chosen to back, however hesitantly, the Arab League deal. Pundits are arguing that Syrian acceptance is an attempt to ensure the success of the next Arab League summit which is scheduled for March and will be held in Damascus. Such thinking is in line with reports that Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallam was warned that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia would not attend the Damascus meeting if Syria did not back the deal. This development begs the questions of why Syria, which no doubt would like to maintain some control over Lebanon, views the summit with greater importance. What is on the agenda of the next Arab League summit that, apparently, in the eyes of the Assad regime, can supersede Syria’s intentions in Lebanon? Perhaps this position is also meant to be a public display of the recent rapprochement (sort of) between Syria and the U.S.

            Incidentally, by way of underscoring how drawn out this stalemate has been, there have already been 11 attempts (with a 12th scheduled for Saturday) to elect a new president. It’s like the local version of the Writer’s Strike in Hollywood, except more important. Unless you’re “The Insider” or any of those other insipid entertainment shows. And blah blah blah, the final point being that the political crisis in Lebanon ain’t over yet, folks.

            This post may be somewhat dated, but hey. I had an MA to finish. Anyway, there was a relatively recent report from the Brookings Institution (released in June 2007) regarding Iraqi refugees. I arrived in Syria about two months later and a short time after that, began to hear of how Iraqi visas were being refused and the refugees were being sent back across the border. On the surface, this looked like a positive development for Washington, ever concerned about Syria’s alleged “open borders” with Iraq. It seemed as though Damascus was recognizing that these refugees could become a political liability for the Assad regime. Having scanned the report, however, I’m starting to wonder if Damascus’s moves weren’t more strategic. According to the report, the refugees were able to take advantage of the Syrian government’s many basic goods and services subsidies. Thus, the large influx of refugees was draining the Syrian economy which already has a substantial Palestinian refugee community and continues to face U.S. sanctions on top of that. So, my theory, however half-cocked and quickly-thought-up, is that perhaps the move was not done to placate Washington but rather to free up crucial domestic resources for the “real” citizens. Of course, even if this is true, it might not matter in the greater scheme of things, but I thought it was an interesting alternative explanation.

My oh my. It’s all a-go over here these days, isn’t it? Not only is Syria abuzz with its warming relations with the U.S. (despite rhetoric from Bush which is probably just talk), but Syria is making headlines with its increasingly poor relations with France. I’ll give you fifty dollars if you can’t guess what they’re bickering about. Yes, shock of shocks, for the first time in what seems like eons, France and the U.S. actually agree on something: Syria’s ties to Lebanon, which both nations view as unnecessary and in violation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity. As soon as I dig up more dirt on why Dr. Bashar has received a Congressional delegation, I’ll pontificate about that. But right now, it’s all about Paris. It seems that relations have gotten so bad between Syria and France that they’re cutting off contact with each other, much as the U.S. did in 2003 in the wake of Hariri’s assassination.

Personally, I find this an interesting development because the fallout over the Hajj assassination last month is becoming complicated. Publicly, the U.S. position remains the same as it has for nearly five years now, being joined by France. At the same time, like I said, Dr. Bashar met with Senator Specter and Congressman Kennedy (if not others) as a sign of rapprochement. At the same time, I continue to hear locally that relations between Syria and Lebanon are at their ziftiest since who knows when, and that Hezbollah is also angry at Assad for allegedly making a deal with America. No doubt, Iran is none too pleased over Syria’s cozying up to the U.S., as well. So basically, at least on some level, everyone’s mad at Dr. Bashar because some other country is going down the tubes. You can’t buy this kind of tension and drama on Grey’s Anatomy, people.

So what happens next? Stay tuned. Over here, our writers aren’t on strike.

In a 3 January article, Free Syria mentioned that Hezbollah was planning some demonstrations as well as the closure of the Beirut airport (thankfully after my visit, although I know two Americans who may not be so lucky when they try to leave). Additionally, there has been talk of closing down major ports as well as a 60’s-style sit-in near the U.S. Embassy. All of this is allegedly due to the Maronite Christians’ role in the ongoing political stalemate as well as to U.S. support for the March 14th Movement. Welcome to Beirut 2008 which is starting to look increasingly like the Beirut of 1975 (or perhaps somewhat more optimistically 1974). The only difference being – if memory serves – that thirty years ago, it was the Muslim group in general (or perhaps principally the Sunnis) who wanted a bigger piece of the pie. Now, it’s the Shi’ites turn, no doubt emboldened by the Hezbollah “victory” in last year’s war against Israel.

Anyway, should these events come to pass, there are some troubling issues that need to be addressed. First, the power of Hezbollah. Whether or not one can consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization remains a question of semantics. Personally, I don’t see any reason to contradict the official view of the U.S., although I understand Nasrallah’s counterargument that the IDF is just as culpable. Still, that argument strikes me a lot as a grade school “I’m rubber, you’re glue” argument. Any way you slice it, I don’t feel comfortable with a powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon. I feel even less comfortable when you look at the second issue: exactly how powerful is Hezbollah that they can even seriously consider shutting down Rafiq Hariri International Airport? Is the federal government so weak that it cannot even protect the airport, to say nothing of the ports? The idea that Hezbollah is able to throw its weight around as it pleases is what prompts me to back away from a normally cautious position and see this as the beginnings of the Civil War redux.

The next president of Lebanon (most likely Michel Suleiman) better be able to rule effectively and thoroughly. At the same time, as a country that purportedly practices democracy, the wishes of Hezbollah cannot be overlooked entirely. I think Nasrallah dramatically understates the influence his group has so that he can grab even more power, but part of being a democracy is listening to the opposition. Even in America, we have to listen to the hippies no matter how pot-induced their arguments might be. Whether one acts on those voices is another matter, but everyone deserves a platform. Excluding racists, of course, who sicken the whole of humanity. But that’s a subject for another blog.
As a small side note: perhaps one small measure of Nasrallah’s importance to the Lebanese political scene can be measured by the interview he gave on 3 January. It lasted at least two hours and was carried on at least four channels, including the Syrian TV station.

By the way, despite the title of this post (or rather the description), this blog is incredibly inferior to the multitudes of others out there. If you want the real scoop on what is happening in Syria, I highly recommend visiting “Syria Comment” which also includes a very detailed blogroll. Seriously, everything about that blog puts this one to shame. To be fair, this blog generally was intended just to provide some amusing insights into my experience in Syria (or Aleppo, specifically) as well as to pontificate about that which I pretend to know, which admittedly, is still heavily Russian- and not Middle Eastern-oriented.

NB: This disclaimer probably should have appeared as the first or second entry. My bad.

Without having had the opportunity yet to read the Time article in which Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was selected as the person of the year, one can expect that such designation was meant as a backhanded compliment. The official U.S. position regarding Putin is laced with concern over recent reforms within the political structure of Russia, and there is no reason to expect that the editors of Time would deviate from this official – and widely accepted – line. But an interesting question arises: from the Russian perspective, is this skepticism fair?

There are three principal figures responsible for the significance of Putin – Gorbachev, Yeltsin, and Putin himself. Without the policies of Gorbachev, there would have been no need for Yeltsin to put the final nail in the proverbial coffin of socialism-slash-communism. Gorbachev’s significance is, thus, as the bridge between the staid past and a brighter future. For that reason, it’s ridiculous that he continues to be despised by a large segment of the population. Yeltsin, for his part, has to undertake difficult policies in order not to fall back into old habits. Yes, news reports at the time would tell us of unbelievably rough living situations for the average Russian thanks to Yeltsin’s and Gaidar’s “shock therapy” economic policies – situations which only worsened with the rise of the oligarchs – but in the end, it’s hard not to say that the ends justified the means. Yeltsin, like Gorbachev, however, could only take things so far. By the time Yeltsin stood for reelection in the critical campaign of 1996, he was the second least popular person in Russia (second only to Gorbachev). His victory meant that it would be that much harder for the Communists – or whomever – to roll back the clock. Curiously, however, Yeltsin was not criticized as harshly as Putin is now for handpicking his successor. U.S. policymakers may not have liked Yeltsin’s meddling as an affront to real democracy, but they turned a blind eye because they believed in Yeltsin’s vision. Putin’s vision is not altogether different, although admittedly, it is more extreme than Yeltsin’s perversions of democracy.

The problem with Putin, according to U.S. policymakers, is that his version of democracy masks authoritarian intentions, despite Putin’s repeated assurances that he is a democrat. One strike agains that notion is the already-discussed fact that he has handpicked his successor. But so did Yeltsin who was able to retain his democratic tag. Another strike against Putin is that he has tightened the screws on the media. This is an unfortunate development that cannot be overlooked, although one should do well to note that certain civil liberties once taken for granted in the U.S. have been curttailed in the name of the GWOT. Is what is happening in Russia altogether different? Sure, in America, it is still possible to express opposition to official American policies, but how effective has that been? America is still engaged in a deeply unpopular war in Iraq despite widespread protests and even a Democratic-controlled Congress that has somehow managed to neuter itself. So, really the question of differences between Russia’s opposition and that of America come down to semantics. In terms of maintaining a semblance of democracy, is it important to have a voice, however ineffective it will be in the end? I ask what’s the difference when in Russia, there allegedly isn’t (much of) an opportunity to express opposition in the first place? In short, I think the cause for concern is valid, but we needn’t be so hasty as to demonize Putin as the second coming of Stalin just yet. Let’s see how things in Russia play out in the aftermath of this year’s presidential elections first.

Either way you slice it, to return to the theme of this post, there can be no denying that Putin will be incredibly important in Russian history, regardless of what one thinks of his policies. He’s not Hitler or Stalin where you feel that you had to support him or risk getting shot (although some might claim otherwise). Putin (generally) delivered a long since absent law and order to Russia. He also restored a sense of pride among Russians that had been missing since before the fall of the Soviet Union. Furthermore, in Moscow and St. Petersburg, if not some of the other larger cities in the Russian Federation, the people are now more prosperous than ever. Thus, even if Putin experimented with fully free elections, he could expect a victory for Medvedev, the United Russia Party, and ultimately, himself.

Four countries have the opportunity to provide hope in 2008. Two are previously recognized countries that have just recently begun an experiment with democracy - Bhutan and Nepal. Both are abolishing the monarchy, Bhutan with the approval of the king and Nepal with the approval of the Maoist rebels who have become part of the government. It will be interesting to see what they make of democracy, perhaps particularly in Nepal given the country’s difficult past with the Maoist insurgents. As for Bhutan, that once famously, was working on developing gross domestic happiness, they will have to account for the sizeable Nepalese minority within its borders, extending the benefits of democracy to them as well in order to make it a viable democratic state.
The other two countries have yet to be recognized as such, and quite possibly could head into 2009 still awaiting such recognition: Kosovo and Palestine. The declaration of Kosovo’s independence will likely prove the most problematic to the international arena with key countries being very vocal on whether or not they support independence for the hitherto region of Serbia. While I don’t think the situation will prompt a return to the Cold War, it will bring western relations with Russia (to say nothing of Serbia) to its lowest point since the NATO campaign in 1999. As for Palestine, I am less optimistic that independence will come despite the ongoing discussions meant to bring about that conclusion. I think that Israel will continue to balk at any set timeframe, preferring to wait and see (in the name of national security) how Hamas reacts, as well as trying to secure a favorable resolution regarding the status of Jerusalem. A Palestinian state would be the biggest catalyst for peace and security in the region, depriving terrorist organizations of one source of grievance upon which they can draw support from otherwise more mainstream Muslims. This, in turn, would marginalize those groups which can only serve the long term interests of the region. Of course this should not suggest that the establishment of an independent Palestine will eliminate the terrorist problem altogether, but it will be a nice step forward in trying to contain it.

Since my last brief post, I have been hearing much rumblings about changing attitudes in the Middle East. Syria and the U.S. are kissing and making up (albeit probably just modestly), while Syria’s relations with Lebanon are at the lowest they’ve been since the Cedar Revolution. This has caused (according to Watan al-Arabi) anger by Nasrallah who is “ridding his offices of Syrian influence” (or something to that effect). So if Hezbollah isn’t looking north for guidance or whatever, it will be looking east to Iran, which will likely increase its militancy towards Americans.

Of course all of this seems to have transpired whilst I was away for Eid/Christmas in Istanbul. So, upon my return, as I was being driven through Beirut and the rest of Lebanon, I had no idea that it probably wasn’t the best time to be there (beyond the usual words of caution from the State Department). I also have since discovered that it might not have been the best time to be traveling through Lebanon to get to Syria for the reasons mentioned above. This is what happens when wifi isn’t universal, I guess.

Having said that, I had wifi access in Istanbul and still the Christmas Day (or day after) bombing there slipped by unnoticed by me until just a few moments ago. I pretty much stayed in one area (where the English speakers were a-plenty), so I don’t think I was terribly close to the bombing. Truth be told, the most upsetting thing is that that happened without my knowing about it. Of course that may not be too surprising if you know me. I have a reputation for obliviousness, although to be fair, I was the first one where I was staying to hear of the Bhutto assassination. But that’s really neither here nor there.

And while I’m indulging in off-topic irrelevance, let me give a shout out to the Patriots for their perfect season. Pity ASU couldn’t have done the same (or even won their bowl game).

« Previous PageNext Page »