Something for the locals

I think I speak for all of us here in the Middle East when I say how excited I am that MBC Action is going to be showing the Indiana Jones trilogy, but enough with the damn commercials already!

 

All Eyes On Syria

So, this weekend, all eyes are on Syria. Down in Damascus, they’re having another Arab League Summit. This is noteworthy partly because it comes on the heels of yet another UN report being released which says that Rafiq Hariri was assassinated. Welcome to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Until they name names, I won’t bother TiVoing any more of their press releases. Anyway, the Arab League summit is also noteworthy because of the rumors that Israel was going to attend for the first time ever. Of course, Olmert and the Israeli delegation passed on the opportunity because they weren’t actually invited and they didn’t want to come anyway.

But don’t swell Damascus’s ego. We got our own big news up here in Aleppo too. Why just this morning in Mohafezah, a stray cat jumped out of a garbage bin and almost got hit by a taxi.

 

MEPE MIA

            It’s been several months now since Tony Blair was appointed/annointed as the International Middle East Peace Envoy and what a few months it’s been. Why just last week, the BBC reported that Blair was on TV (briefly) expressing the same optimism that President Bush earlier commented on when discussing the talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. If all it takes to be the Middle East Peace Envoy is to react to other people’s comments, why, they could have just asked me. I’m sure my retainer would have been lower.

            To be fair, I’m sure that Blair’s new job is more complicated than it would appear. It might actually even involve some work, but one wouldn’t know it. It boggles the mind that someone so high profile has received such a (potentially) high profile position and yet he continues to be overshadowed by every else who visits the region. Is it wrong to expect Blair to trump Bush when it comes to peace in the Middle East? Maybe. America is still the one everyone looks to to solve those problems despite our waning influence there. However, one would do well to ask, then, why even bother having a Middle East Peace Envoy? I can’t help but wonder if this position was just an excuse to give Blair something to do besides watching Richard and Judy now that his most important years are behind him. If there is a valid purpose behind his appointment, then someone needs to start throwing “Bush’s poodle” a bone.

 

France has ticked off someone else now

My oh my. It’s all a-go over here these days, isn’t it? Not only is Syria abuzz with its warming relations with the U.S. (despite rhetoric from Bush which is probably just talk), but Syria is making headlines with its increasingly poor relations with France. I’ll give you fifty dollars if you can’t guess what they’re bickering about. Yes, shock of shocks, for the first time in what seems like eons, France and the U.S. actually agree on something: Syria’s ties to Lebanon, which both nations view as unnecessary and in violation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity. As soon as I dig up more dirt on why Dr. Bashar has received a Congressional delegation, I’ll pontificate about that. But right now, it’s all about Paris. It seems that relations have gotten so bad between Syria and France that they’re cutting off contact with each other, much as the U.S. did in 2003 in the wake of Hariri’s assassination.

Personally, I find this an interesting development because the fallout over the Hajj assassination last month is becoming complicated. Publicly, the U.S. position remains the same as it has for nearly five years now, being joined by France. At the same time, like I said, Dr. Bashar met with Senator Specter and Congressman Kennedy (if not others) as a sign of rapprochement. At the same time, I continue to hear locally that relations between Syria and Lebanon are at their ziftiest since who knows when, and that Hezbollah is also angry at Assad for allegedly making a deal with America. No doubt, Iran is none too pleased over Syria’s cozying up to the U.S., as well. So basically, at least on some level, everyone’s mad at Dr. Bashar because some other country is going down the tubes. You can’t buy this kind of tension and drama on Grey’s Anatomy, people.

So what happens next? Stay tuned. Over here, our writers aren’t on strike.

 

Hezbollahpalooza

 

In a 3 January article, Free Syria mentioned that Hezbollah was planning some demonstrations as well as the closure of the Beirut airport (thankfully after my visit, although I know two Americans who may not be so lucky when they try to leave). Additionally, there has been talk of closing down major ports as well as a 60’s-style sit-in near the U.S. Embassy. All of this is allegedly due to the Maronite Christians’ role in the ongoing political stalemate as well as to U.S. support for the March 14^th Movement. Welcome to Beirut 2008 which is starting to look increasingly like the Beirut of 1975 (or perhaps somewhat more optimistically 1974). The only difference being – if memory serves – that thirty years ago, it was the Muslim group in general (or perhaps principally the Sunnis) who wanted a bigger piece of the pie. Now, it’s the Shi’ites turn, no doubt emboldened by the Hezbollah “victory” in last year’s war against Israel.

Anyway, should these events come to pass, there are some troubling issues that need to be addressed. First, the power of Hezbollah. Whether or not one can consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization remains a question of semantics. Personally, I don’t see any reason to contradict the official view of the U.S., although I understand Nasrallah’s counterargument that the IDF is just as culpable. Still, that argument strikes me a lot as a grade school “I’m rubber, you’re glue” argument. Any way you slice it, I don’t feel comfortable with a powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon. I feel even less comfortable when you look at the second issue: exactly how powerful is Hezbollah that they can even seriously consider shutting down Rafiq Hariri International Airport? Is the federal government so weak that it cannot even protect the airport, to say nothing of the ports? The idea that Hezbollah is able to throw its weight around as it pleases is what prompts me to back away from a normally cautious position and see this as the beginnings of the Civil War redux.

The next president of Lebanon (most likely Michel Suleiman) better be able to rule effectively and thoroughly. At the same time, as a country that purportedly practices democracy, the wishes of Hezbollah cannot be overlooked entirely. I think Nasrallah dramatically understates the influence his group has so that he can grab even more power, but part of being a democracy is listening to the opposition. Even in America, we have to listen to the hippies no matter how pot-induced their arguments might be. Whether one acts on those voices is another matter, but everyone deserves a platform. Excluding racists, of course, who sicken the whole of humanity. But that’s a subject for another blog.
As a small side note: perhaps one small measure of Nasrallah’s importance to the Lebanese political scene can be measured by the interview he gave on 3 January. It lasted at least two hours and was carried on at least four channels, including the Syrian TV station.

 

 

Rumblings in the Sharq

Since my last brief post, I have been hearing much rumblings about changing attitudes in the Middle East. Syria and the U.S. are kissing and making up (albeit probably just modestly), while Syria’s relations with Lebanon are at the lowest they’ve been since the Cedar Revolution. This has caused (according to Watan al-Arabi) anger by Nasrallah who is “ridding his offices of Syrian influence” (or something to that effect). So if Hezbollah isn’t looking north for guidance or whatever, it will be looking east to Iran, which will likely increase its militancy towards Americans.

Of course all of this seems to have transpired whilst I was away for Eid/Christmas in Istanbul. So, upon my return, as I was being driven through Beirut and the rest of Lebanon, I had no idea that it probably wasn’t the best time to be there (beyond the usual words of caution from the State Department). I also have since discovered that it might not have been the best time to be traveling through Lebanon to get to Syria for the reasons mentioned above. This is what happens when wifi isn’t universal, I guess.

Having said that, I had wifi access in Istanbul and still the Christmas Day (or day after) bombing there slipped by unnoticed by me until just a few moments ago. I pretty much stayed in one area (where the English speakers were a-plenty), so I don’t think I was terribly close to the bombing. Truth be told, the most upsetting thing is that that happened without my knowing about it. Of course that may not be too surprising if you know me. I have a reputation for obliviousness, although to be fair, I was the first one where I was staying to hear of the Bhutto assassination. But that’s really neither here nor there.

And while I’m indulging in off-topic irrelevance, let me give a shout out to the Patriots for their perfect season. Pity ASU couldn’t have done the same (or even won their bowl game).

 

What’s in a word?

Regional coverage of the events in Annapolis come from the Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya news networks (think Fox and CNN for a reference point). Al-Jazeera is calling the event “the Annapolis Convention” while Al-Arabiya is calling it “the Annapolis Meeting”. Is that intentional? Certainly, a convention sounds more formal (and perhaps indicative of greater hopes of a workable outcome); but one cannot discount the possibility that one may be reading more into words than one ought to. If my Arabic were better, and I could more fully understand what the respective channels were talking about, I might end this mystery, but alas.

It may also interest the one or two people who read this blog to note that in the aftermath of the live remarks (that I watched on BBC World), I have yet to see coverage on the other main regional news channel, Al Manar (Hezbollah’s news station). Al-Manar has been more focused on discussing the ongoing political deadlock in Lebanon, relegating news of the Annapolis Convention/Meeting to the ticker like an amusing afterthought. Neither have I seen any coverage on the Syrian channel, but they rarely do the news to begin with.

Update: As I’m composing this, I’m watching the Syrian news. They’re calling it a “conference” as well. News of the conference is followed up by a discussion of the occupied Golan Heights and the UN.

 

Word of the day: Momentum

Any opportunity for possible peace in the Middle East is worth pursuing, so it was nice to see the Quartet come together, although from the looks of things, they didn’t really have much to report other than their word of the day. Still, the possibility of Syria attending the ME peace conference is good (although lettuce jump for joy when it actually happens). It’s important to get all the big local players involved…so that there is more blame to go around as they piss away the opportunity (or so says the cynic).

Secretary Rice did well to note that there is still much work to be done. Most of the work making the press rounds involves the creation of a Palestinian state. But there are at least two other important considerations: the ongoing plight of the Palestinian refugees (which, admittedly, may be resolved upon the creation of an independent Palestine) and the even more troublesome issue of Jerusalem. Al-Quds is actually probably the biggest obstacle to peace since there has been no maneuvering or hints at accommodation on who gets to control Jerusalem. The short term solution is simple and obvious - and one that has been proposed before to the dismay of the two central parties: have Jerusalem under UN control. Yes, the UN has issues itself. I mean, it can’t even get involved in serious crises like Darfur in a reasonable time. Still, there is no denying that right now, the UN is the most respected international organization in operation and as such is the only entity with enough credibility to tackle the problem until a permanent solution is found, which at the current rate of progress in the Middle East will be right around the time that Hell freezes over.

So take your momentum with a grain of salt, but don’t throw in the towel just yet.

 

The Two-State Mirage

The news here has been discussing Secretary Rice’s ME visit in which she hopes to discuss getting the two-state solution back on track. Reading from various newspapers, it is my understanding that they are looking for broad-based support. Curiously, however, it seems that key players will likely not be in attendance.

The Jerusalem Post had the following to say in today’s edition: “Senior Israeli officials said that while Saudi participation was desirable, the key was to get “open support” for the diplomatic process and a two-state solution to the conflict “from additional players.” The officials said that this “broad support” could be gained even if the Saudis did not show up, if countries such as Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Morocco attended”.

OK, to be fair, the Islamic Middle East is not just Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, etc. and should include the other countries mentioned above, but since Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon share borders with Israel and the Palestinian Territories, one would think that their presence would be mandatory. One also has to wonder why Iraq wasn’t mentioned in the list of countries attending. Of course, that’s not to say that they won’t. It might just have been excluded from the Post’s article. However, if they are truly staying away, one must wonder how effective this conference will be if the US cannot even get an ally like the new Iraqi government to press for peace and the two-state solution.

 

Motorway to Damascus

Some reminiscenceses about the flight (up to Amman):

Frustrating not knowing exactly where I was (except for the time that the pilot said we were flying over the Mediterranean). I think I saw the Greek Isles, but I could not identify any of them.

Saw a bridge that I want to assume crossed the Bosphorous. Maybe it didn’t. I didn’t really see signs of life around the bridge, and I always thought the Straits were just outside Constantinople (not, Istanbul).

Next sighting of land was as brilliant as a Guinness commercial. Long and fairly straight coastline would suggest I was looking at either Lebanon or Israel. I think the latter because later when we got closer to landing, they showed the flight pattern. We went from Tel Aviv (again, a guess - based on a huge amount of housing in the area) across the West Bank (I think, but I don’t recall seeing any water). We might have passed over (occupied) Jerusalem, but can’t verify that either. And then it was mounds and mounds of desert (the Negev?) before landing in Amman.

I was told the Queen Alia IA was a small one. It is. A “what am I doing here?” moment came to me as we were taxing to the gate. But not really in a bad way, although I was a little concerned about not having any local money and my language abilities.

Globalization first presented itself in the form of a Cinnabon inside the airport. That was unexpected. I firgured it would be something more like a McDonald’s or Pizza Hut.

Eventually, I made my way to the other side of the airport - past the duty free - (for my connecting flight to Aleppo) when Allah blessed me with a Starbucks. I would have had a coffee anyway, but I especially enjoyed this one because I knew that Syria knows not from Starbucks, so it would be a while before I got another one.