Four countries have the opportunity to provide hope in 2008. Two are previously recognized countries that have just recently begun an experiment with democracy – Bhutan and Nepal. Both are abolishing the monarchy, Bhutan with the approval of the king and Nepal with the approval of the Maoist rebels who have become part of the government. It will be interesting to see what they make of democracy, perhaps particularly in Nepal given the country’s difficult past with the Maoist insurgents. As for Bhutan, that once famously, was working on developing gross domestic happiness, they will have to account for the sizeable Nepalese minority within its borders, extending the benefits of democracy to them as well in order to make it a viable democratic state.
The other two countries have yet to be recognized as such, and quite possibly could head into 2009 still awaiting such recognition: Kosovo and Palestine. The declaration of Kosovo’s independence will likely prove the most problematic to the international arena with key countries being very vocal on whether or not they support independence for the hitherto region of Serbia. While I don’t think the situation will prompt a return to the Cold War, it will bring western relations with Russia (to say nothing of Serbia) to its lowest point since the NATO campaign in 1999. As for Palestine, I am less optimistic that independence will come despite the ongoing discussions meant to bring about that conclusion. I think that Israel will continue to balk at any set timeframe, preferring to wait and see (in the name of national security) how Hamas reacts, as well as trying to secure a favorable resolution regarding the status of Jerusalem. A Palestinian state would be the biggest catalyst for peace and security in the region, depriving terrorist organizations of one source of grievance upon which they can draw support from otherwise more mainstream Muslims. This, in turn, would marginalize those groups which can only serve the long term interests of the region. Of course this should not suggest that the establishment of an independent Palestine will eliminate the terrorist problem altogether, but it will be a nice step forward in trying to contain it.
January 2, 2008
What’s in store for 2008
Posted by Sean A under Palestine | Tags: Bhutan, Kosovo, Nepal, Palestine |[4] Comments
January 2, 2008 at 2:40 pm
If only the international community had the same will for palestine as it does for Kosovo . . .
Kosovo will get its independence come early this year, i.e. February, at the earliest, thanks for the help of primarily the U.S. and the EU. The question though is whether the US and the EU have now stretched themselves too thin to get a palestinian state passed. I thought Pres. Bush would have been able to broker a deal when he took office. Clearly, you can add that to his list of disappointments.
I hope that the next president that fills office in the white house — which will likely be a democrat — again push forward with the call for a palestinian state. The time is now.
January 2, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Really, the time was sixty years ago when Israel was established, but who’s counting? As for President Bush brokering a deal, unfortunately a couple things got in the way: 9/11 and apathy. Meanwhile, the situation has gone unresolved.
January 2, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Your right about timing. When I wrote the “time is now,” what I meant to say was that the time was a long time ago. Too little too late. But better late than never.
As for the Kosovars, some will say they’ve been waiting for hundreds of years. . .
By the way, of the presidential candidates out there, who do you think can help broker a deal of a palestinian state? You know, you hear all this stuff about how Kosovar independence will lead to a wildfire of separatist states. . .
That’s not necessarily a bad thing, right?
January 4, 2008 at 10:13 am
It is a bad thing if you’re Russia, Moldova, and Canada to name just a few. But seriously, I recall a conversation from some class where we were discussing the breakup of Yugoslavia and someone mentioned that we could keep accepting separatist state after separatist state until every ethnic group has their own country. Like legalized segregation. That is a bad thing, so clearly limits must be drawn somewhere, but really it’s difficult to say where the line ought to be drawn. I think given the historical treatment of Kosovars by the Serbian government, that an independent Kosovo ought to be accepted. I would argue the same for Palestine.