President Emile Lahoud (pro-Syrian) is finished on 24 November. That much we know. But who will replace him is as yet unclear. In fact, the Lebanese parliament is - at least according to reports I’ve read - focusing more on international reaction to events in Lebanon than on choosing their next president. Another issue is that the March 14th Coalition (anti-Syrian) are hoping to get a consensus with a simple majority, while the opposition, represented by Nabih Berri, is hoping for a two-thirds consensus.

In a country still deeply affected by the notion of confessionalism introduced by the French when it governed Lebanon, even a simple majority is no simple feat. This raises concerns that Lebanon could lapse back into civil war. Indeed, with the recent string of assassinations of those parliamentarians identified as anti-Syrian, Lebanon may already be lapsing.

I know someone who visited Beirut in the last couple of weeks and he commented on how tense people were in Beirut, contrasting their demeanor with those of Halabis. Here, life continues to seem normal, even with the Israeli airstrike taken into account. That incident still seems to be playing out behind closed doors rather than escalating into something more serious.